Holiday Ops 2018 / 2019 Loot Box Value Guide

This article is reposted here with author’s permission
(Thanks RagingRaptor)
Original: www.13disciple.stream/18–19-loot-box-guide.html

A note from the author:
Last year I recall a friend spent over $500 USD and never received a Type-59.
This year I’ve seen a post of over 600 purchased boxes and not a single IS-3a.

These boxes are yet again an excellent gold value. If you want to put gold or premium time in your account then I would recommend purchasing loot boxes. DO NOT BUY boxes with the intent of finding a specific tank. Even with a high percent chance, there is never a guarantee.

Before you click buy make sure you answer this question: If I don’t get the tank I want am I still going to be happy with this purchase?
If yes, then boxes are the most monetarily efficient way to populate your account with gold.

Don’t take my word for it – listen to Circon! [Language Warning]

https://clips.twitch.tv/StrangeAliveLarkCopyThis

Gold per USD Value

A note on data: I want to thank everybody that has submitted data to me. I only kept data that I could verify as accurate through screenshots or video recordings. Because of this I’ve sacrificed quantity for quality.
You can find the raw data for this article here.
​Data will be updated as I collect more through out the coming weeks.Below is the raw gold, credits, garage slots, and premium tanks mined from the data I have.
Last updated 13-Dec-18 | Total Boxes 479

ItemTotal From All BoxesGold ValueTotal Gold Value
Credits26.4 Mil400 credits = 1 gold66,000
Premium Time314 days1 day = 67 gold21,038
Garage Slots
711 slot = 150 gold10,650
105 leFH51,5007,500
KV-220-2
221,50033,000
M4 Improved171,75029,750
Turán III9
1,70015,300
E2576,70046,900
IS-3a512,19060,950
Defender310,95032,850
Skorpion G310,90032,700
Raw Gold161,500161,500

Tanks: (The gold value of a tank was pulled from the World of Tanks Wiki. This is confirmed from screen shots of opened boxes)

Total Gold Value: 518,138 / 479 boxes = 1081 gold per box average

If we only use the raw gold and gold value of duplicate tanks (assume all duplicates)

​Total Gold Value: 420,450 / 479 boxes = 878 gold per box averageHowever, not all loot box packages are the same value. This table determines the gold value of each package based on 878 gold / box.

Cost* (USD)BoxesApproximate Gold ValueApproximate Gold / Dollar
5.9932,634439
19.99119,658482
39.992521,950548
99.997565,850659

* For the sake of this calculation I rounded up each cost by 1 cent.If we consider the frequent war chest bundle of 25,000 gold for $100 USD which yields 250 gold per $1 USD, then it becomes obvious the actual value of these bundles.

These values mirror the value from last year’s loot boxes.


3D Skins for Tier 10 Tanks

The new 3D skins for the IS-7, BC 25t, T57 Heavy, and Grille are also available from loot boxes. Since once you pull all 4, you are unable to pull duplicates the only way to calculate their drop rates is to only take into account all boxes until the 4th skin is drawn. This means in my data set the odds of pulling 1 of the 4 skins is roughly 7.1% – keep in mind this will vary wildly as, I have low confidence in the accuracy of this drop considering the small data set.

Simon Claws


Worth noting during this event there is a chance to draw Simon Claws. Simon Claws comes with a 0-skill BiA and a 0-Skill Sixth Sense, along with a fully trained 3rd skill. This makes him the best tank commander, and the best crew member in the game. This crewman will train twice as quickly as a regular 0-Skill crew member and three times faster than a regular crew member.

Similar to the 3D skins, you can only draw him once making it difficult to actually pinpoint the odds. In my data sets pulling Simon Claws is roughly 10.0% – keep in mind this will also vary wildly, and I consider this statistic to also be of low confidence.

(this means that Simon Claws will complete his 4th skill at the same EXP that it takes a 0-skill crew member to complete their 3rd skill, or the same EXP that it takes a regular crew member to achieve 2 skills)

Drop Rates

I didn’t do drop rates last year as I didn’t feel I had a large enough data set to make accurate data. I’ve decided to post my drop rates, but keep in mind my data set is small and the actual drop rates my vary by a wide margin.

There is another MUCH larger data set available here. However this data set was compiled by any tanker entering in their own values, and is possibly subject to inaccuracies.  Use my values (low quantity) or the values from user submitted data at your own risk.

YOUR DROP RATES MAY VARY

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Special Thanks To:
Scorpiany, _Drakonis_, The_Pitboss, Circonflexes
u/bistrus, u/Land-, u/RagingRaptor177, u/SquawksExistentially, Questions or Comments? Drop into Discord or Join me on Twitch!

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Unannounced, unique and New Year crew member – Santa Claus with 2 perks for some lucky players.