Holiday Ops 2018 / 2019 Loot Box Value Guide

This article is reposted here with author’s permission
(Thanks RagingRaptor)
Original: www.13disciple.stream/18–19-loot-box-guide.html

A note from the author:
Last year I recall a friend spent over $500 USD and never received a Type-59.
This year I’ve seen a post of over 600 purchased boxes and not a single IS-3a.

These boxes are yet again an excellent gold value. If you want to put gold or premium time in your account then I would recommend purchasing loot boxes. DO NOT BUY boxes with the intent of finding a specific tank. Even with a high percent chance, there is never a guarantee.

Before you click buy make sure you answer this question: If I don’t get the tank I want am I still going to be happy with this purchase?
If yes, then boxes are the most monetarily efficient way to populate your account with gold.

Don’t take my word for it – listen to Circon! [Language Warning]

https://clips.twitch.tv/StrangeAliveLarkCopyThis

Gold per USD Value

A note on data: I want to thank everybody that has submitted data to me. I only kept data that I could verify as accurate through screenshots or video recordings. Because of this I’ve sacrificed quantity for quality.
You can find the raw data for this article here.
​Data will be updated as I collect more through out the coming weeks.Below is the raw gold, credits, garage slots, and premium tanks mined from the data I have.
Last updated 13-Dec-18 | Total Boxes 479

ItemTotal From All BoxesGold ValueTotal Gold Value
Credits26.4 Mil400 credits = 1 gold66,000
Premium Time314 days1 day = 67 gold21,038
Garage Slots
711 slot = 150 gold10,650
105 leFH51,5007,500
KV-220-2
221,50033,000
M4 Improved171,75029,750
Turán III9
1,70015,300
E2576,70046,900
IS-3a512,19060,950
Defender310,95032,850
Skorpion G310,90032,700
Raw Gold161,500161,500

Tanks: (The gold value of a tank was pulled from the World of Tanks Wiki. This is confirmed from screen shots of opened boxes)

Total Gold Value: 518,138 / 479 boxes = 1081 gold per box average

If we only use the raw gold and gold value of duplicate tanks (assume all duplicates)

​Total Gold Value: 420,450 / 479 boxes = 878 gold per box averageHowever, not all loot box packages are the same value. This table determines the gold value of each package based on 878 gold / box.

Cost* (USD)BoxesApproximate Gold ValueApproximate Gold / Dollar
5.9932,634439
19.99119,658482
39.992521,950548
99.997565,850659

* For the sake of this calculation I rounded up each cost by 1 cent.If we consider the frequent war chest bundle of 25,000 gold for $100 USD which yields 250 gold per $1 USD, then it becomes obvious the actual value of these bundles.

These values mirror the value from last year’s loot boxes.


3D Skins for Tier 10 Tanks

The new 3D skins for the IS-7, BC 25t, T57 Heavy, and Grille are also available from loot boxes. Since once you pull all 4, you are unable to pull duplicates the only way to calculate their drop rates is to only take into account all boxes until the 4th skin is drawn. This means in my data set the odds of pulling 1 of the 4 skins is roughly 7.1% – keep in mind this will vary wildly as, I have low confidence in the accuracy of this drop considering the small data set.

Simon Claws


Worth noting during this event there is a chance to draw Simon Claws. Simon Claws comes with a 0-skill BiA and a 0-Skill Sixth Sense, along with a fully trained 3rd skill. This makes him the best tank commander, and the best crew member in the game. This crewman will train twice as quickly as a regular 0-Skill crew member and three times faster than a regular crew member.

Similar to the 3D skins, you can only draw him once making it difficult to actually pinpoint the odds. In my data sets pulling Simon Claws is roughly 10.0% – keep in mind this will also vary wildly, and I consider this statistic to also be of low confidence.

(this means that Simon Claws will complete his 4th skill at the same EXP that it takes a 0-skill crew member to complete their 3rd skill, or the same EXP that it takes a regular crew member to achieve 2 skills)

Drop Rates

I didn’t do drop rates last year as I didn’t feel I had a large enough data set to make accurate data. I’ve decided to post my drop rates, but keep in mind my data set is small and the actual drop rates my vary by a wide margin.

There is another MUCH larger data set available here. However this data set was compiled by any tanker entering in their own values, and is possibly subject to inaccuracies.  Use my values (low quantity) or the values from user submitted data at your own risk.

YOUR DROP RATES MAY VARY

Picture

Special Thanks To:
Scorpiany, _Drakonis_, The_Pitboss, Circonflexes
u/bistrus, u/Land-, u/RagingRaptor177, u/SquawksExistentially, Questions or Comments? Drop into Discord or Join me on Twitch!

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19 thoughts on “Holiday Ops 2018 / 2019 Loot Box Value Guide

  1. Although I agree people should not “fish” for tanks in lootboxes. You can’t blame people for doing it anyway, since not everyone has the self control to not buy them. Lootboxes are simply predatory and exploitative, and only WG is to blame for putting it into their game.
    As much as I like Circon’s content, he lacks empathy with his statement.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Bought 75 this year, got very lucky with the IS3 A, the defender & the skorpion. Only got one skin for the IS7 however. It seems very good value in regards of gold & premium time.

      Like

  2. Bought 12 boxes in order to refill gold. Got a T57heavy skin and also a Defender in the last box. I might actually be getting 12 more, since with all the festivity tank discounts I bought a lot of new tanks and spent most of that gold on crew re/training already.

    Like

      1. Something enjoyable with a company that doesn’t lie consistently?

        Right now for me that’s Dota 2. There is no p2w aspect, I just pay for Dotaplus which is like 3$ a month.

        Like

  3. Got 11 boxes. Got the commander, the skin for bc, 11 days of premium and 14k gold. (10900) I got from a Scorpion G I already owned. The IS3A I got years ago 😀

    Like

  4. I bought the 100 boxes deal, just the one. And the first box was IS3A Lucky me lol. No Lefh arty though, I was kinda hoping for that so I could be the one shitting on people all match for a change. Oh well >.> Im happy with what I got :3

    Like

  5. I bought a pack of 75 and got all the skins Simon Claus, and the IS3-A. Then I bought a 25 pack and got a Defender which is the only other tank I needed. Looks like j got pretty lucky. Also got enough ornaments to reach level 10 immediately.

    Like

  6. bought 25, got the is3a, loved the animation when I got it, also got a is7 skin, about 11 days of premium, and 13K in gold, some of the gold came from the Turan and M4 improved which I already had. All in all I am very happy

    Like

  7. Bought 2 x 25 boxes and got 2 IS-3A, a Defender (I already own Obj 252U), 2x E25 (converted to gold), shitload of t5 premium tanks, Mr. Claws and all four skins. Plus, using the gold I got, snapped up Progetto this morning, which I missed on marathon.
    Pretty nice deal, as far as I’m concerned…

    Like

  8. I bought 25 boxes (new year boxes) – received only gold, premium, credits and 2 crap tier 5 premium tanks

    Then i bought another 11 packs (lunar boxes) – i got santa claw commander, the 4 skins (grille 15 – i have the tank, is 7 – i have the tank, BC, T57 heavy) and gold, premium

    so no tier 8 tanks for me, but i enjoy the gold and premium and credits

    Like

  9. 39 boxes… around 13000golds(including some t ier 5 duplicates)… no tier 8 premium, no tier 7 or 6 premium. Got new KV-220, French tier 5 arty, Turan and M4 improved… (some of them ver duplicates, raw gold was around 9000… + 44days of prem So actually it was almost not worthy for me even in term of golds… from same money(66€) I could have much more golds… for me it was not good buy

    Like

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