Answer: In 90% of cases, you’ll need no more than 679 boxes. In the remaining 10%, it could be significantly fewer or significantly more.
General Commentary:
Yesterday, English-speaking players (aka “Johns”) were shocked by the new multi-tier loot boxes, but we’ve actually seen them before. In fact, they were tested in the Chinese region back in August 2024 — and we already talked and wrote about this. So their surprise is rather puzzling.
Since it’s 2025 and no one wants to deal with graphs or spreadsheets anymore thanks to AI, all the necessary calculations are shown in the photo above using ChatGPT.
But first, a bit of commentary:
European streamers believe that over 1,000 boxes are required to get all new tanks — that’s incorrect (they simply don’t know how to calculate).
And why are so many people aiming to get all 7 new tanks anyway? At Tier 3 (Raumfalter Prime), there isn’t really a highly desirable tank:
• 
Vercingétorix — trash and difficult to use (definitely not for Tier 3)
• 
Chieftain Mk. 6 — outdated
• 
MBT-B — okay, possibly the only real candidate
And perhaps this is where WG made a mistake: the final tier of Matryoshka lacks a truly desirable or overpowered tank — something that would spark real interest (e.g. like the old Waffenträger). There’s nothing of that sort here.
(Premium arty, by the way, is no joke — yes, it’s here.)
ChatGPT Calculations:
• No more than 679 boxes are needed to get all 7 new tanks (in 90% of simulations)
• 520 boxes on average are required to get all 7 new tanks
Based on 5,000 simulated openings, ChatGPT provided:
• Minimum boxes needed: 68
• Maximum boxes needed: 1183
• Average boxes needed: 452
Is That a Lot?
More yes than no.
Is It Worth Going for All 7 New Tanks?
Debatable — especially at Tier 3 (Raumfalter Prime). There are good tanks in the first two tiers, though.
One Last Detail Everyone Overlooked:
“If you already own all possible tanks from a specific Raumfalter type (Proto, Alpha, or Prime), any duplicate drop will be compensated with a Raumfalter Prime (Tier 3) instead.”
This means:
The more old tanks you already own from the Raumfalter pool, the fewer boxes you’ll need to get all the new ones — especially from Raumfalter Prime (Tier 3).
Final Advice:
Decide what you actually want.
Tier 3 vehicles are mostly for collectors only.
If you’re just looking for regular premiums, calculate how many boxes you’d usually buy in a standard loot box event. Any Tier 2 and Tier 3 tanks that drop can be considered a pleasant bonus.
You’re not likely to earn much gold, silver, or free XP from this event.
P.S.
Do NOT buy multi-tier loot boxes in small packs — it’s inefficient.
You must get discounted bundles. Pay attention to this and run your own calculations!
Analysis & Calculations by: ChatGPT
Prompt Author: Плотина Бобра
Please, chatgpt: How many liters of milk can be milked from a cow before leaving it completely dry?
This is just crazy….
I love WoT. But buying these boxes I won’t.
I agree with that. I’ve enjoyed buying a few boxes, in the last ones I got the Kust, KPZ and Jagdtiger Proto. I also buy more for Christmas, but this one disgusts me so much that I won’t buy a single one, although I would like to have one or two tanks.
Yes that’s still €1,600
And the author who asked ChatGPT made a mistake not take into account the real odds which box of what level drops from the 20%. You dont hit a higher box to 100% in this 20% drop chance. So ChatGPT misses a very important factor in all the calculation and so you need more boxes.
One huuuuuge oversight by ChatGPT – in order to get the 60 Prime boxes, you need 60*5=300 Alpha Boxes. And you get these from 300*5=1500 Proto boxes! Sure, you will get compensation from getting duplicates, but they will still be far from the 679 of 90% percentile. More like close to 1000.
Stfu john
You don’t get compensation for duplicates
Your math isnt right there, no offense.
You take the 20% chance and divide it by the amount of crates you want, in this case 60 prime boxes. Then you add +1. So we get 1.033333333, this is the base for our log funktion. The result we want is = 2, for it stands for a 100% chance to get 60 boxes. So our base is 1.033333, our result we want is 2.
If you put it in we have log [1.0333333](2). What we get is 208,29 in other words you need an average of 209 alpha boxes to get 60 prime.
Now we repeat the same procedure for 209 boxes. Base chance 0.000956938 + 1 = 1.000956938.
log[1.000956938](2) = 724,686 ~ 725 boxes.
So in total you need an average of 725 boxes to get 60 prime boxes.
Conclusion:
Dont waste your money onto this even if you have more than enough.
It will not get better if you play butterlord for Wg, they have no incentive to change if they get through with this stuff. Things change when moneyflow stops.
…and most of them are German tanks which means chronic banana shell sickness
I ceased doing German tanks at least a year ago
The US tank might be interesting
What we REALLY need is the dire maps situation to be sorted, at least they’ve made a start… at last !
Banana shells some new Klaus conspiracy theory?
Perhaps WoT is getting the max lootbox income possible before it is made illegal in the EU
It’s bound to be stopped eventually
It doesn’t matter whether it is stopped or not. Everyone has a brain, can think and decide whether they want to buy or not. That’s called freedom of choice, although not everyone uses their brain and it doesn’t suit everyone…
It cannot be stopped, but there should definitely be more regulations so long as agency is still left in the consumers’ hands. By your logic, countries should not enforce reasonable removal of lead-based products. After all, “everyone has a brain, can think and decide” whether to be exposed to a known neurotoxic substance. Even children have brains, so they, too, should be able to decide whether to be exposed (even though lead is far more toxic to children than adults).
Everyone, DO NOT BUY THIS.
Rather than spend money on this, put it towards the purchase of a PS5 game or SWITCH2. It is more economical.
bro really said support the devil of nintendo
We actually have the probability for the boxes to fully, accurately calculate this thanks to gambling laws in Korea
https://worldoftanks.asia/ko/news/specials/raumfalte-last-stand-2025-bundles/
If you check the bottom of the article they disclose the rates for each Raumfalte. If you’re unable to read/translate Korean, it’s as follows;
Raum Proto – 23% chance of Proto/75% chance of Alpha/2% chance of Prime
Raum Alpha – 2% chance of Proto/23% chance of Alpha/75% chance of Prime
Raum Prime – 75% chance of Proto/23% chance of Alpha/2% chance of Prime
With this boxing event, WG shows that there are no limits after all. When I look into the future of WoT, I see flamethrowers and rocket launchers, even more overpowered tanks and level 10 oneshot premium artillery… but I don’t see myself playing WoT anymore. It’s so sad…
This is a perfect example where someone uses AI to “solve” a problem, and they do not have the understanding of the answer to check if it’s correct.
Like “UDES 14 5 enjoyer” already pointed out, these calculations are wrong. To get the needed 60 Prime for unchained you need 300 Alpha, not Proto. So the corrected calculations with this method would be:
Up to 150 Proto (3 tanks)
Up to 40 Alpha -> 200 Proto
Up to 60 Prime -> 300 Alpha -> 1500 Proto
Total: 1850 Proto
With chaining:
1850/1.25 = 1480
This calculates the situation where you would have super bad luck and hit the pity counter every time to get a tank, so in reality lower amount of boxes are of course likely to be needed.
But as seen, even with this method the end result is way over 1000. Maybe the European streamers and english speaking “Johns” knew better after all.
So that €2,130 then
1600 boxes smh nahh,iam lucky always,during christmass i got all tanks from 28 and kust and others on few tries,give me some tier 10 so i can raise my 4500 score and 1200 wn
AI didn’t took to account, that tanks can repeat.
Wait 12 months and buy direct from the shop etc
I these lootboxes are are epic fail it won’t be long before the “chance of a lifetime!” deals appear
However, the author really missed the mark with some of the statements in this article. Two are of particular concern to me. One is ChatGPT’s math, which is patently false and has already been refuted by thoughtful readers, and the second is the claim that there isn’t a single good tank in Prime Spheres. I’d love to see your face when a 2k WN8 player on tier 10 runs you over with a MTB T-clip a la “there is no life after the clip”. And the Chieftain MK6 Heavy Tank (without crew and equipment!!!) is a mobile DPM monster with incredibly good weapon handling, relegating the best T10 Heavy for me so far, the T110E5, to second place.
Quickybaby says he ain’t opening his free boxes.
And chems who didn’t mentioned loot boxes had been banned
I have written a Raumfalte Simulator so people can get examples of what they would (or wouldn’t) get.
You can specify the number of boxes and try different quantities. Click refresh to “reroll” and see what the next batch might bring. You can “open” up to 2000 boxes at once.
The simulator uses the odds published by WG.
https://zoeballz.uk/Raumfalte_Loot_Box_Simulator.php